In a casino, if you play perfect Basic Strategy, you can increase your odds of winning at blackjack to approximately 48.5%, thus reducing the house’s odds to around 51.5%. But that’s still a losing game, long-term, as even if you managed to play flawlessly, you could only expect to win back around 97¢ for every dollar wagered.
The only means of actually winning long-term at blackjack is to count the cards, and vary your bet with the 10-count (increasing your bet when the dealer’s odds of busting are disproportionately high). But the “eye in the sky” is also counting the cards—and if they catch you varying your bet with the count, they’ll kick you out of the casino and ban you.
So playing straight-bet, flawless Basic Strategy at 48.5% is your highest odds of winning in a casino (outside of 10/7/5 Double Bonus video poker (or 9/7/5 if it’s a progressive royal), which is actually a 100.17% payback, if played flawlessly…but as for table games, blackjack is your best bet).
And yet, I watch people flock into the casinos and play tragically losing games—and even at the blackjack tables, they obviously have no idea how to play Basic Strategy. They’re literally just throwing their money away! It’s astonishing (not to mention painful) to watch.
I’ve discussed this phenomenon with my brother, who is a very good blackjack player, and we’ve determined that they must just believe it’s all luck—sometimes they get lucky and win, and other times (most times) they don’t.
But the reality is, it’s not luck, it’s math. All the games are rigged so that the casino wins in the long term. All of them. Some more than others. (Except for the one aforementioned video poker game (if you can even find it in a casino today, at least here in Vegas) but playing that game accurately enough to beat the odds requires the memorization of hundreds, if not thousands of card combinations, so few people ever actually threaten the casino by playing this game correctly and winning consistently).
And this reality is why it is said that gambling is a tax on people who are bad at math…
Anyway, best I can tell, this must also be how people approach their financial decision-making in our rigged economy. They’re just rolling the dice and hoping to win, instead of understanding economics and realizing it’s no longer a free market economy, instead it’s a bubble economy—and it’s all rigged in favor of the government and its cronies.
When I talk to people about the coming crash, and their investment decisions (particularly in housing—in the past year, I’ve advised 3 or 4 friends that we are now at the height of the market, and so they should wait until after the crash, then buy in at the bottom, get much more house for much less money, and begin building equity at the outset, instead of losing it right away), they look at me blankly, like they have no idea what I’m talking about. What coming crash?
Well, how about this one:
MarketWatch: S&P 500 could fall 40% as yield curve inverts (MarketWatch)
Bloomberg: The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge.
ABC: Global markets tumble as US recession warning flashes ‘yellow’
TalkMarkets: A Shot Across The Bow: What The Inversion Of The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve May Mean For Markets
New York Times: Stocks Fall as Bond Market Flashes a Recession Warning
It’s as if they think that it’s just luck (or bad luck), whether or not the economy will crash. But, just like all the games in the casino, it’s not luck—it’s rigged by the house.
Astonishing. I would’ve thought that this is common knowledge…but apparently, it’s not.
The Bubble Has Popped; The Economy Is Next
So much winning: all the latest signs of the bubble that will crush this economic expansion
4 Economic Bubbles Growing In the United States
And, in the following video, Peter Schiff takes a moment to explain what’s really going on:
And until things change—i.e., the national government is once more barred from intervening whatsoever in the economy, and the (unconstitutional) Federal Reserve is abolished (or better yet, the national government is abolished altogether)—we’ll keep experiencing a bubble economy, complete with currency devaluation (inflation), false market signals and the resultant malinvestment—and economic crashes that devastate the working class, while the ruling class remains insulated from the consequences of their decisions and actions, while continuing to enrich and empower themselves while everyone else suffers.
My speculation? Simple: Nothing will change, until this nation finally plunges into total economic collapse…but by then it’ll be too late.
“You see why I like to study history? It doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.”
~ Doug Casey | Casey Research